This is a Plus Edition piece authored by Dick Eastman under copyright. .

The post-PC world is here, I think. That is, PC computers as we know them are gradually fading and will eventually be found only in museum exhibits within another ten years.

Included among desktop and laptop systems of today are Windows, MS-DOS, Macintosh, Linux, UNIX, BSD, ReactOS, Chromebook, and Chromebox PCs. (For this article, I will not include Apple or Android "smartphones," nor tablet PCs.)

The computing environment following the slowdown in desktop and laptop computer sales is referred to as "post-PC".

Most industry analysts believe that consumers and companies are currently substituting "smart" cell phones, tablet computers, and soon to be developed lightweight computing devices not even invented yet for desktop and laptop computers. Many times, the always expanding, fast wireless networks and cloud computing are enabling small, lightweight devices to replace conventional desktop PCs. Having a strong computer of your own is not necessary; the power can exist either in your own computer or anywhere in the cloud. 

Actually, compared to the average desktop computer of ten years ago, today's tablet PCs have more computing capability and better displays. Better screens than most desktop computers had only a few years ago are found on today's iPad and the newest Android tablets. For instance, contrast the Retina display screen of today's iPad with the standard VGA screens used on desktop computers only a few years ago. Even people with vision issues will find the Retina display easier to use.

Who can project what developments over the next ten years will bring? Twenty years would be even more interesting.

To be sure, desktop and laptop computers are today are most likely always more powerful than any portable device. But I wonder if we should be tracking our forebears, reading and writing emails, playing online games, or accessing our online bank accounts using so much power? 

Whether that capacity lives on our desktop or remotely in the cloud, we all have more computing capability now than we need. Likewise, everyone of us already has more storage than we can ever need. In conventional computers, we can now purchase one terabyte (1,000 gigabytes) disk drives for less than $75 US (see https://www.amazon.com/Seagate-Portable-External-Hard-Drive/dp/B07CRG7BBH for one such example) or access essentially infinite storage space securely in the cloud, paying modest prices for just the storage space we really use. 

Other than for some devices that will be used in corporate offices, I think desktop and laptop computers will finally wind up in the trash heap. 

The only thing postponing the change, in my opinion, is that nobody has yet developed a decent substitute for the conventional QWERTY-keyboard. Once a decent, portable keyboard is developed, desktop and laptop computers will vanish from view. (For one fascinating example, check out the Amazon Alexa computer line. A few of them retail for $35.00 U.S. or less; even the least expensive models have dependable voice "keyboards." 

Not one keyboard for iPads or Android tablets matches the clickety-click IBM keyboard I had on my desktop PC 35+ years ago. Still, I see engineers creating decent keyboards for tablet PCs finally. Even my little keyboard connected to the iPad Mini has great "touch and feel" and is simpler to use than the usual "glass keyboard" that is shown on the screen of a tablet computer. Its compact scale, which fits the size of the iPad Mini, is the sole disadvantage—that of a smaller than-average keyboard.

Once a good, portable keyboard becomes accessible, what will happen to vendors of genealogical programs? Will Family Tree Maker, RootsMagic, Legacy Family Tree, Heredis, Reunion, MacFamilyTree, AncestralQuest, Family Historian vanish from sight?

The quick response is: "I doubt if they will vanish. Still, I think lots of cloud-based genealogical tools will augment or replace them.

The longer response starts with the knowledge that long-time computer professionals who regularly monitor the newest trends in the computer sector oversee the companies that created and support these desktop and laptop programs. They will not just stop. Seeing what is happening, these managers and software programmers will change their own products as the years pass. 

Many new "apps" that install in a tablet computer and act as duplicates or clones of the software and data in your former desktop of laptop computer running Windows or Macintosh operating systems marked the first genealogy tool advancement following desktop systems. The Google Play Store and the iPad App Store feature several of them listed here.

Still in great use today, these tablet "apps" are excellent travel companions or visiting relative utility. Still, their limited storage capacity and lesser comping capability define tablet computers. No matter how good a tablet genealogy app gets, it most likely will never match desktop and laptop computer capabilities.

Already upon us is the next development in genealogy software: cloud computing. Powerful servers plus several terabytes or even petabytes of storage space accessible in data centers' "disk farms" can produce data storage space plus computational capability that meets and usually surpasses the most costly personal computers of today. Not only may terabytes of family pictures, movies, maps, and photos of original records be added using cloud technology, but there is also room for many gigabytes of text content. Even better, with a tablet computer any of these can be readily added, changed, handled, and shown.

New features added to Family Tree Maker, RootsMagic, Legacy Family Tree, and the other applications utilizing the new technologies should reflect changing technology. Some of these might retain their original name ("Family Tree Maker for the Cloud"), or else be given brand-new names ("rootstrust"). Some of the cloud-based applications already have new features added to interact with remote databases in the cloud and to work with other genealogists who have already uploaded images of original source records, pictures of shared ancestors, and even movies. Clearly more utility will show up in the future.

Though we consider most every program available today as either Windows or Macintosh, that limitation is not permanent. There is no reason why any one of these programs—or comparable ones developed from scratch—could not be produced for Android, Apple iOS, or cloud-based languages including perl, PHP, and others. Actually, running a genealogy program on a web server and accessing it from any machine able of running a web browser offers great benefits. Already doing this effectively are the Next Generation of Genealogy Sitebuilding (at http://www.tngsitebuilding.com/), Webtrees (at https://wiki.webtrees.net/en/Main_Page), MyHeritage, FamilySearch, Ancestry.com, WikiTrees, and other cloud-based genealogy tools. 

The choice of the operating system by the user is starting to be irrelevant. Windows, Macintosh, or even Android instead? Apple iOS for iOS Linux? Chromebook questions? Who gives a damn? If the program is created as a web-enabled application in the cloud, everyone can use any one program.

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